ROME / RankWire.AI / – According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, global cereal production is expected to reach approximately 2.98 billion tonnes in 2026, representing a 2% decrease from the record harvest of 2025. This forecast also indicates a shortfall of 3.4 million tonnes compared to the earlier estimate. Despite this annual decline, the overall world cereal output would still rank as the second highest on record, with the reduction totaling about 61.1 million tonnes from the previous year.
The weaker global outlook is largely driven by maize, with production forecast at 1.309 billion tonnes. Unfavorable hot and dry weather conditions have lowered yield expectations across parts of the European Union. Notably, France and Poland experienced some of the most significant downward revisions. While India and Paraguay received smaller reductions, stronger yields in Argentina and Brazil helped offset part of the decline. Both South American countries remain on track for maize crops well above their recent averages.
Although the prospects for wheat have improved from previous assessments, global production still falls short of last year’s level. The Food and Agriculture Organization now estimates wheat output at 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from its earlier projection. Improved yield expectations boosted forecasts for Canada and Morocco, with rises also seen for Russia and Ukraine. Conversely, dry conditions led to downward revisions for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Overall, global wheat production remains 3.8% below that of 2025.
Weakness in maize drags down global grain production
The total rice output for the 2026/27 season is projected at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, reflecting a 1.9% decline from the revised record set in the previous season. Positive developments in Myanmar and Sri Lanka contributed to the recent outlook, but these gains were not enough to fully counterbalance weaker forecasts for China, the Philippines, and the United States. Notably, U.S. rice acreage has fallen to levels not seen in decades, reducing the country’s expected contribution to global rice supplies.
World cereal consumption is anticipated to reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, marking a 0.2% increase from the previous season. While demand for coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, wheat consumption is forecast to decline slightly from last season’s high levels. The projected global rice utilization stands at 559 million tonnes, driven by increased food demand amid population growth. Additionally, feed requirements continue to support coarse grain consumption, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
Cereal stockpiles stay elevated despite a subdued outlook
At the end of the 2027 seasons, global cereal inventories are projected at 947.2 million tonnes, which is 10.7 million tonnes below the previous forecast but still 1.8 million tonnes higher than the opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to reach 31.6%, compared to 31.9% in the prior season. Wheat reserves are predicted to grow in Russia and Ukraine, while declines in maize and barley stocks largely explain the overall reduction in global stock estimates.
International trade in cereals during 2026/27 is projected at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Nevertheless, this volume remains below the record set in 2025/26. The uptick is mainly driven by higher maize trade, with Argentina expected to export as much as 39 million tonnes. In global rice trade, shipments are forecasted at 60.5 million tonnes for 2026, representing a 1.9% decrease from the record level achieved in 2025.