LUXEMBOURG / RankWire.AI / – In the opening quarter of 2026, greenhouse gas emissions within the European Union experienced a marginal increase. Eurostat reported that seasonally adjusted emissions reached 837 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, reflecting a 0.3% rise from the preceding quarter. The revised total for the fourth quarter was 835 million tonnes. During this period, the EU’s gross domestic product showed no quarterly growth, providing a direct comparison between economic activity and emissions levels.
On an annual basis, the trend moved in the opposite direction, with greenhouse gas emissions decreasing by 1.2% compared to the first quarter of 2025, even as EU GDP grew by 0.8%. The data incorporate carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases, all measured using a unified CO2-equivalent metric. The quarterly series monitors emissions from economic activities and household consumption across all 27 member states, adjusting for seasonal variations.
The sector that experienced the most significant quarterly increase was energy-related activities, with emissions from electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply rising by 4.8%, and water and waste management activities growing by 0.7%. Conversely, emissions from households fell by 1.3%. The manufacturing, construction, and transportation and storage sectors each saw a decline of 0.6%. Manufacturing remained the predominant source, representing 20.8% of the total emissions, with households close behind at 20.2%.
Majority of EU nations see quarterly emission hikes
During the first quarter, emissions increased in 20 EU member states while seven countries experienced decreases. Estonia reported the largest rise at 9.7%, followed by Finland at 6.4%, and Bulgaria at 4.6%. These increases were largely driven by heightened activity in construction and energy supply sectors. Slovenia saw the most substantial decline at 5.0%, with Luxembourg decreasing by 3.8% and Romania falling 2.7% from the previous quarter.
Most of the countries with rising emissions also experienced economic growth during this period. Specifically, 18 of the 20 nations with increased greenhouse gas emissions reported GDP expansion in the quarter. Among the seven countries that reduced their emissions, Spain, Greece, France, and Slovenia either maintained or increased their economic output. These national figures illustrate the concurrent movement of emissions and GDP across individual economies in the first three months of 2026.
Long-term decline persists below 2015 benchmarks
Looking at annual data, the overall emissions across the bloc show a continued downward trend. In 2025, the EU’s economy and household greenhouse gas emissions totaled approximately 3.3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent, which is 17.2% lower than the total recorded in 2015. These yearly figures encompass emissions from businesses, public sector activities, and households, offering a broader perspective compared to the quarterly data, which primarily reflects short-term changes in economic activity and energy consumption.
Thus, the first-quarter figures indicate a slight increase from late 2025, but a decrease compared to the same period last year. The European Union experienced higher economic output on an annual basis while greenhouse gas emissions declined during the same timeframe. The quarterly GDP remained stable compared to the previous three months. Additionally, the latest data reveal significant variations between sectors and member states, with energy supply contributing to the largest sectoral increase, and several countries recording measurable reductions in emissions.