MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has officially authorized a comprehensive long-range plan for its coal sector, establishing an annual production goal of 662 million tonnes by the year 2050 in line with its projected scenario. This initiative extends the nation’s coal policies through the middle of the century, with 2024 production roughly at 443 million tonnes, indicating that the new benchmark signifies a notable increase from recent output levels. The Russian government endorsed this programme via Order No. 2606-r, signed on September 22, 2026.
Instead of a single fixed forecast, the plan outlines multiple potential development paths. The target scenario anticipates coal production reaching 530.1 million tonnes by 2030, then expanding to 595.2 million tonnes in 2036 before hitting 662 million tonnes in 2050. Alternative scenarios project lower totals for the final year; the stress scenario estimates 318.9 million tonnes, the conservative case 460.8 million tonnes, and the inertial scenario approximately 586.4 million tonnes.
A significant element of the programme relates to exports, which are also set to meet long-term benchmarks. Under the primary scenario, export volumes are projected to hit 266.7 million tonnes in 2030, increasing to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036, and then reaching 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that Russian coal exports grew by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan also incorporates domestic consumption, processing capacities, extraction techniques, and regional production figures.
Eastern Siberia and Russian Far East to Play Larger Role in Production
The government’s strategy allocates a bigger share of coal extraction to Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which together contributed 48.3% of Russia’s total output in 2024. By 2050, their combined contribution is expected to grow to between 53.9% and 56.7% across the different scenarios outlined in the plan. Russia also boasts more than 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves, and the programme emphasizes maintaining current mining capacities while developing additional resource zones to meet future production goals.
Coal processing and extraction methods are addressed separately within the plan, with processed coal—excluding lignite—accounting for 58.9% of the output in 2024. The strategy aims to increase this share to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining, which produced 78.4% of Russia’s coal in 2024, is projected to grow its share to between 82% and 85% under long-term goals. Additionally, the programme introduces measures focused on improving labor productivity, advancing mining technology, ensuring industrial safety, and adhering to environmental standards.
Three-Phase Implementation Plan Extends to 2050
The strategy will be executed over three distinct periods, beginning with the initial phase lasting until 2030, which will focus on short-term industry development and production improvements. The second phase spans from 2031 to 2036, emphasizing processing, utilization, and transportation infrastructure, and the final phase extends from 2037 to 2050. Oversight of the programme’s execution will be managed by the Energy Ministry, working in coordination with other federal and regional agencies, with mandatory annual progress reports submitted to the Ministry of Economic Development in accordance with government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin introduced the revised strategy during a government session on September 21. This new plan replaces the earlier coal industry programme through 2035, which was approved in 2020. Novak stated that by 2050, the coal sector’s gross value added is expected to increase sixfold, with the broader economic multiplier effect reaching nearly 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne figure remains a scenario-based target within the plan, not the sole pathway for future production.